B.C. economies 'less exposed' to potential U.S. tariffs: Canadian Chamber of Commerce

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Kamloops, B.C., ranked 40th retired of 41 cities, would beryllium the second-most resilient successful the lawsuit the U.S. does enforce tariffs connected Canadian goods, according to the chamber’s calculations.

Kamloops would beryllium second-most resilient metropolis successful look of tariffs, study shows

Courtney Dickson · CBC News

· Posted: Feb 20, 2025 8:00 AM EST | Last Updated: February 20

A presumption of a tiny metropolis nestled betwixt greenish hills, with a assemblage of h2o moving done it.

B.C. cities, successful general, would beryllium among the slightest susceptible successful Canada if U.S. President Donald Trump follows done connected tariff threats, according to new data from the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.

That isn't to accidental that British Columbia wouldn't suffer: the chamber's main economist, Stephen Tapp, says those tariffs would beryllium recessionary for the full country.

"I don't deliberation anybody's truly afloat insulated from Trump's tariff threats," helium told CBC's Daybreak Kamloops impermanent big Doug Herbert. "But I deliberation that the B.C. economies successful our numbers travel retired a batch little exposed than immoderate of the different places successful the country."

The chamber's Business Data Lab looked astatine Statistics Canada accusation from 41 cities crossed Canada with populations of much than 100,000 people. This means the information is lacking erstwhile it comes to agrarian Canadians, who besides person a vested involvement successful Canada's commercialized narration with the United States.

A illustration of Canada's 41 largest cities, ranked successful the bid of vulnerability to U.S. tariffs.

From there, they measure however overmuch each metropolis exports to the U.S.

Kamloops, located 253 kilometres northeast of Vancouver, ranked 40th retired of 41 cities, would beryllium the second-most resilient successful the lawsuit the U.S. does enforce tariffs connected Canadian goods, according to the chamber's calculations.

Exports from Kamloops to the U.S. relationship for astir 2.3 per cent of the city's GDP — good beneath the nationalist mean of astir 20 per cent, Tapp said, and lone astir 15 per cent of its exports spell to the U.S.

UBC economist Ross Hickey said Kamloops is successful a bully concern successful that they don't trust connected the U.S. for commercialized the mode different communities do, but the metropolis has been missing retired connected an "ideal" trading partner.

"U.S. markets are benignant of wherever it's astatine for Canadian producers," helium said. "The U.S. is the largest user marketplace successful the world, precise precocious income, precocious colonisation and it's close adjacent door.

"Trade with the United States is not going to spell distant due to the fact that of tariffs. Tariffs are going to marque commercialized little favourable ... but determination are inactive opportunities for economical integration with the United States."

Nanaimo, 307 kilometres southwest of Kamloops connected Vancouver Island, is not acold down Kamloops; U.S. exports marque up astir 4.1 per cent of the city's GDP, portion conscionable implicit 30 per cent of its exports spell to the United States.

Victoria, Kelowna, Vancouver and Chilliwack are each connected the little extremity of the standard successful presumption of tariff exposure. The lone B.C. metropolis that could spot a truly antagonistic impact, according to the chamber's data, would beryllium Abbotsford-Mission, which ranked 15 retired of 41 cities and is situated on the Canada-U.S. border.

"There's evidently immoderate determination variation," Tapp said. "But I deliberation 1 of the main benefits of the economies connected some of the coasts, but peculiarly for B.C., is that there's a batch much commercialized with Asian economies and a batch little dependence connected the U.S. market."

Hickey said that though B.C. is surely much insulated from future tariffs, the state already suffered erstwhile softwood lumber tariffs nearly doubled past year.

But Hickey said there's been a batch of absorption connected however tariffs could interaction Canadians, but not capable connected however policies southbound of the borderline mightiness propulsion the United States into a recession, which helium said could person a greater interaction connected Canada's economy.

"If Trump's policies trim the income of Americans, that's not bully for america arsenic a trading partner," helium said. "I don't privation sick upon our trading partners, I anticipation that they retrieve from the insanity that's taking spot close now."