An energy superpower? Oilpatch skeptical of Carney's support for the sector

Despite Mark Carney's pledges passim the predetermination run to kick-start the country's economy, physique vigor corridors and alteration the state into an vigor superpower, galore successful the oilpatch are unconvinced determination volition beryllium immoderate alteration successful argumentation absorption from the re-elected national Liberals. 

Grant Fagerheim, CEO of lipid institution Whitecap Resources, woke up aboriginal Tuesday greeting lone to consciousness frustrated and anxious by the results of Monday's election. 

After a decennary of the Liberals successful power, Fagerheim described a feeling of disappointment among galore successful Calgary's downtown bureau towers wherever vigor companies are headquartered.

"It's precise challenging for america successful Western Canada and particularly erstwhile you enactment successful the vigor sector, to bring them backmost into powerfulness again," helium said.

"Quite frankly, it's astonishing."

For years, oilpatch leaders person chastised the Liberal authorities for introducing policies that harm the assemblage specified arsenic the cleanable substance regulations, the projected emissions cap, and changes to the national appraisal of large projects.

After replacing Justin Trudeau arsenic premier curate past month, Carney made run pledges that would beryllium much supportive of the oilpatch. Oil and earthy state is the country's largest export to the United States.

"There is simply a wide consciousness of unease successful presumption of however the Liberals volition determination guardant connected an docket that we cognize is precise important to Alberta," said Deborah Yedlin, president of the Calgary Chamber of Commerce.

"There's truthful overmuch astatine involvement close now. We can't spend to trip. We indispensable marque definite that we're focused connected the future," she said, particularly considering the ongoing commercialized warfare with the U.S.

In a caller survey of vigor executives and investors, ATB Capital Markets recovered that "federal vigor and biology policies" were ranked arsenic the apical hazard facing the Canadian vigor sector. 

Seventy-three per cent of those surveyed said a Liberal number authorities would beryllium antagonistic toward their willingness to put successful Canadian energy, ATB analysts wrote successful a study Tuesday morning. 

'Build baby, build'

In his triumph code Monday night, Carney vowed to marque Canada a "superpower" of some cleanable and accepted energy, and promised to "build, baby, build" — an evident notation to U.S. President Donald Trump's pledge connected lipid drilling.

"It's clip to physique caller commercialized and vigor corridors moving successful concern with the provinces, territories and Indigenous peoples," helium said.

On the run trail, upon gathering with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, Carney suggested helium mightiness beryllium consenting to determination distant from the conception of an emissions headdress connected the lipid and state industry, which has been criticized by the oilpatch arsenic a de facto headdress connected production.

Carney has besides said helium is committed to making Canada's lipid manufacture much competitive.

"The committedness is to present projects similar those that we agreed are nationalist priorities," Carney said successful March. "It's astir getting, yes, pipelines built crossed this state truthful that we tin displace imports of overseas oil."

Western Canada produces millions of barrels of lipid everyday, but parts of Eastern Canada import lipid due to the fact that determination are nary pipelines moving crossed the country.

The Liberal level promised to get large projects approved much quickly, alternatively of the existent process which tin instrumentality respective years.

Pipeline politics

Adam Waterous, CEO of the Waterous Energy Fund and enforcement president of Strathcona Resources, says Carney has been responding to a displacement successful nationalist sentiment successful favour of the Canadian vigor sector.

A caller Nanos poll, for example, recovered that astir 3 retired of 4 Canadians present enactment the operation of a caller east-west pipeline.

The problem, says Waterous, is that the backstage assemblage has been incapable to physique caller vigor infrastructure successful caller years due to the fact that investors aren't coughing up wealth for these projects. 

He was portion of a radical of CEOs who sent a missive to the national candidates during the campaign, asking for changes specified arsenic the elimination of the national emissions headdress and the repeal of the national c levy connected ample emitters. 

"Get escaped of each that, you're going to person private-sector investment," said Waterous.

So far, Carney hasn't committed to those circumstantial demands. Waterous says that leaves the national authorities with 1 enactment to get caller pipelines built: to usage a Crown corporation.

That's not unheard of. The Trans Mountain enlargement pipeline is owned by the national government, and the CEO of the Crown corp precocious floated the thought that Ottawa could clasp ownership for the agelong term.

"This is not a large deviation from the doctrine of the authorities now," said Waterous. "It doesn't possibly daze maine that helium didn't run connected creating Petro-Canada 2.0 but yeah, it's the lone logical conclusion."

Carney is nary alien to Alberta arsenic helium grew up successful Edmonton. Besides his past roles arsenic politician of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, Carney held the relation of UN peculiar envoy for clime enactment and finance, and besides advocated for the planetary fiscal assemblage to put successful net-zero emissions.

In a enactment Tuesday morning, Royal Bank expert Maurice Choy said investors volition beryllium keen to spot however Carney's level translates into vigor policy, peculiarly astir expanding intra-Canada and planetary vigor commercialized and continuing the country's decarbonization journey.

"Companies that person cleanable vigor maturation projects whitethorn payment from definite Liberal initiatives, including the national concern taxation credits, the c contracts for differences, national output-based pricing strategy for ample emitters, and the imaginable east-west energy grid," wrote Choy.

"For [the midstream sector], we look guardant to the much supportive permitting scenery for large vigor infrastructure projects that the enactment campaigned on, and however the enactment whitethorn physique Canada into a 'superpower successful some cleanable and accepted energy.'"

Sliding prices

In caller years, the oilpatch has enjoyed historical profits arsenic commodity prices soared pursuing Russia's penetration of Ukraine. At the aforesaid time, Canadian lipid accumulation has continued to turn to acceptable caller records.

So far, successful 2025, lipid prices person softened considerably and dropped connected Monday to astir $60 US per tube successful North America. At those prices, companies could statesman slashing concern and cutting jobs.

Still, for Fagerheim, the CEO of Whitecap, helium is adamant the bigger interest close present is the predetermination effect and whether Carney volition really pivot the Liberal party's policies toward the sector.

"We've got the aforesaid set with a antithetic singer," helium said.