Alberta Prosperity Project releases fiscal plan, predicts surplus in billions within 1 year of separation

Kelsea Arnett · CBC News

· Posted: Jul 03, 2025 8:25 PM EDT | Last Updated: 8 hours ago

The Alberta Prosperity Project's caller draught fiscal program is projecting Alberta's system could treble wrong 20 years of separation.

The Value of Freedom: A Draft Fully Costed Fiscal Plan for an Independent Alberta was released Thursday. It estimates a surplus successful the billions wrong the archetypal twelvemonth of independency from Canada.

"Alberta tin virtually go the astir prosperous state successful the satellite with the highest GDP per capita of immoderate state successful the world," said Jeff Rath, a co-founder of the separatist group, which announced in May that it would push the state to let a separation referendum aboriginal this year.

Some experts accidental Thursday's fiscal program lacks clarity, and that contempt the project's claims of making blimpish estimates, the numbers could beryllium an overestimation. 

"There's a batch of knowns and unknowns successful the plan," said Charles St-Arnaud, main economist astatine Alberta Central, a radical representing recognition unions successful the province.

"Especially erstwhile we look further down the roadworthy — it's not wide however it each holds together," helium said.

Speaking astatine a edifice successful downtown Calgary, Rath said his group's probe — which cites sources specified arsenic Statistics Canada, the Government of Alberta and nationalist documents from provincial accounting firms — shows a surplus of betwixt $23.6 and $45.5 cardinal per year. 

Once divorced from Canada, the province would besides halt paying equalization payments, redeeming $44 to $47 billion, helium said. 

St-Arnaud, however, said that each hinges connected whether Alberta is capable to screen the outgo of services the national authorities is already paying for. 

"There mightiness beryllium a redeeming determination by not having to beryllium a nett contributor to equalization, for example, but the outgo of mounting up each those caller programs, each those caller institutions volition beryllium astir apt higher than what they expect," helium said.

Conservative estimates

The program estimates a 33 to 55 per cent taxation chopped for Albertans successful the archetypal year, arsenic good arsenic deregulation for businesses. 

It besides outlines a doubling-down connected lipid and state production, with accumulation hitting 9.5 cardinal barrels per time by 2045. Recent forecasting from S&P Global Commodity Insights anticipates yearly accumulation to scope 3.5 cardinal barrels per time this year. 

St-Arnaud said this could beryllium an overestimation, arsenic the program puts the outgo per tube astatine $85. Current prices are conscionable nether $70 a barrel.

"There's a spot of cautious information that needs to beryllium taken determination that possibly we're having a spot of an overestimation of what volition beryllium the semipermanent benefits due to the fact that of those assumptions," helium said.

Rath said the program uses "extremely blimpish estimates" to marque those assumptions, resulting successful numbers reflecting the slightest affirmative outcome.

University of Calgary governmental subject prof Lisa Young notes that the program does instrumentality into relationship the fluctuation successful lipid prices.

"They admit that request for lipid volition highest comparatively soon and past decline," she said, demonstrating they are reasoning astir imaginable swings successful the economy.

Still, Rath said they judge determination is nary motion request for lipid and state volition shift.

"It's benignant of similar Al Gore saying the oceans are boiling," helium said, referencing comments the erstwhile U.S. vice president made respective years agone astir clime change. "Every 5 years idiosyncratic says that the extremity of the world is coming and cipher has yet to travel up with an economical alternate to lipid and gas."

Young said the program inactive lacks "robust" investigation from economists — and it leaves respective questions astir the nuts and bolts of separation unanswered.

"Have they taken into relationship the frictional costs of separation?" she said. "Have they taken into relationship the galore radical who would battalion their bags and permission the state and not privation to beryllium portion of Alberta?"

Pension payments and currency concerns

Another country of uncertainty is the program to displacement to an Alberta Pension Plan — similar the 1 the United Conservative authorities has proposed.

Using information from a 2023 LifeWorks report, the program says the Canadian Pension Plan owes Alberta $334 billion. With its blimpish estimates, the program assumes the state would person $167 cardinal successful 2026. 

Rath besides said an autarkic Alberta would reduce pension payments but treble pension payouts. 

But St-Arnaud said this is based connected the presumption that Albertans are mostly richer and tin lend more, but besides that they are younger and volition usage little of the money.

"But Albertans are gonna get older anyway," helium said. "Yes, Alberta is inactive younger than the remainder of Canada, but that spread is narrowing rather rapidly."

He besides said 1 cardinal mistake the program makes successful its gross estimates is combining returns from the Alberta Pension Plan with wide fiscal revenue. 

"That magnitude of revenues shouldn't beryllium included successful fiscal revenues due to the fact that that's the mode pension funds work, and that's the mode the CPP works astatine a national level," helium said. "It's an autarkic entity."

Rath said Alberta would besides follow the U.S. dollar, earlier yet shifting to an Alberta-specific currency.

Young said the imaginable effect this could person is not clear.

"What would it mean to follow the American dollar each of a sudden, right? What would that bash to people's idiosyncratic finances?" she said.

Opposition petition 'a atrocious joke'

At the aforesaid property league Thursday, Rath addressed questions astir a competing petition program that would telephone for Alberta to enactment successful Canada.

"It's a atrocious joke," Rath said. "It's not a petition that we're taking seriously."

The Forever Canada petition, led by erstwhile Progressive Conservative Thomas Lukaszuk, is posing its ain referendum question astir staying successful Alberta. 

Rath said this volition not disrupt his group's plans to taxable a question connected separation due to the fact that theirs is simply a law challenge, not a argumentation one. 

According to the Elections Alberta website, referendum questions tin beryllium held for some law and non-constitutional questions.