5 million and counting? StatsCan model suggests Alberta has hit population milestone

Janet French · CBC News

· Posted: May 13, 2025 6:24 PM EDT | Last Updated: 5 minutes ago

Late Sunday night, ATB's main economist Mark Parsons was watching his telephone screen, waiting for a Statistics Canada machine exemplary to foretell that the state had its 5th millionth resident.

At 11:18 p.m., Canada's colonisation timepiece estimated that an migrant arrived successful Alberta, nudging the colonisation to that caller landmark number.

It's a provincial milestone, Parsons said.

"If you're successful Alberta, you spot it each day," he said. "You spot licence plates from different provinces, the schools are filling up, [the] streets are busy."

The years 2023 and 2024 saw exceptional colonisation maturation successful Alberta. The fig of radical successful Alberta grew by 3.9 per cent successful 2023, past different 4.4 per cent successful 2024, according to provincial fund documents.

On Monday, Finance Minister Nate Horner told reporters that his ministry expected colonisation maturation to dilatory down a spot this year, to 2.6 per cent, and anticipated 5 cardinal Albertans by July, not May.

"Which makes maine wonderment if we inactive aren't increasing faster than expected," Horner said.

But there's a large caveat connected that number, says Stacey Hallman, an expert successful Statistics Canada's centre for demography successful Ottawa. The colonisation timepiece is simply a machine exemplary that uses past trends to foretell aboriginal numbers.

The national bureau won't finalize its second-quarter 2025 colonisation estimates until September. Albertans volition person to hold astir 5 months to beryllium 5 cardinal official.

A study released earlier this twelvemonth by StatsCan that looked astatine a scope of colonisation maturation scenarios predicted Alberta reaching 5 cardinal radical sometime successful 2026 oregon 2027.

Hallman said changes to national limits connected immigration, impermanent overseas workers and planetary students volition dampen the complaint of newcomers to the country, and Alberta.

The bulk of Canada's colonisation maturation is owed to immigration, with the country's slowing fertility complaint of 1.3 children calved per woman, she said.

Alberta charismatic during tariff threat, economist says

Unlike erstwhile bursts of Prairie colonisation growth, the latest influx isn't tethered to an lipid boom, Parsons said. He said Alberta saw an inflow of young adults and young families hoping for bully jobs and lodging acold much affordable than successful British Columbia oregon Ontario.

Despite the national migration argumentation changes, inter-provincial migration to Alberta remains swift, Parsons said.

For those arriving with jobs, they're moving successful petrochemicals, biodiesel, nutrient manufacturing, tourism, and different increasing sectors, helium said.

Alberta's commencement complaint exceeds its decease rate, and astir of the caller arrivals are settling successful the province's 4 largest cities – Calgary, Edmonton, Red Deer, and Lethbridge.

Parsons said the state whitethorn stay an charismatic destination for economical migrants arsenic Ontario and Quebec are perchance much exposed to tariff policies.

Service Alberta and Red Tape Reduction Minister Dale Nally said that growth successful backstage assemblage jobs has been a draw.

"Our program is working, but we agree, it's besides creating unit connected infrastructure and services and it's thing that we person to woody with," helium told reporters astatine the legislature connected Monday.

NDP concern professional Court Ellingson says overcrowded classrooms, hospitals nether strain and sometimes lengthy hold times for provincial services amusement the authorities was not prepared for accelerated growth.

"We request caller ideas and caller radical coming into this state to support helping america determination forward," Ellingson said. "But we amended beryllium prepared to put successful the infrastructure for each of america to beryllium successful."

Ellingson said a propulsion from immoderate factions to clasp a provincial referendum connected separation from Canada could besides marque Alberta little charismatic to newcomers.