5 Manitoba takeaways from the 2025 federal election

Bartley Kives · CBC News

· Posted: May 02, 2025 6:00 AM EDT | Last Updated: 10 minutes ago

With the 2025 national predetermination successful the rear-view mirror, the Liberals stay successful power, the Conservatives stay successful Opposition and the New Democrats person been reduced to 7 seats.

Now that these results are clear, it's clip to see what happened successful Manitoba connected a much granular basis:

1. In retrospect, Marty Morantz didn't person a chance

On the eve of the election, Winnipeg West was 1 of two Manitoba ridings wherever an incumbent was successful information of losing.

This wasn't based connected immoderate hunch. Just arithmetic.

In the 2021 election, Conservative Marty Morantz bushed Liberal Doug Eyolfson by 460 votes, which worked retired to a 1 percent constituent borderline successful a riding past called Charles-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley.

This mirrored the nationalist enactment for their respective parties successful that election. Nationwide successful 2021, the Conservatives edged the Liberals, 33.7 per cent to 32.6 per cent.

The NDP, meanwhile, was the enactment of prime for 17.8 per cent of Canadians successful the 2021 election.

The wide content going into the 2025 predetermination was immoderate important swell successful Liberal enactment would let Eyolfson to overtake Morantz. The Conservative run successful Winnipeg, led by experienced organizers Michael Kowalson and Tannis Drysdale, was aware it had to tally a superior crushed crippled successful bid to nullify a humble Liberal pb successful fashionable support.

On predetermination night, however, the NDP ballot collapsed to 6.3 per cent nationally and lone 4 per cent successful Winnipeg West, according to Elections Canada.

That allowed Eyolfson to stroke past Morantz by much than 7,000 votes and a astir 14 percent constituent margin. 

In effect, 2 retired of each 3 NDP voters successful 2021 jumped vessel to the Liberals successful Winnipeg West. Even Manitoba's top crushed crippled couldn't halt that train.

2. Leila Dance didn't person a chance, either

The different Winnipeg incumbent to suffer a spot connected predetermination nighttime was the NDP's Leila Dance successful Elmwood-Transcona. She was hoping to borderline past Conservative Colin Reynolds for the 2nd clip successful 7 months.

In the September byelection, Dance earned 48 per cent of the ballot successful Elmwood-Transcona, portion Reynolds received 44 per cent. Less than 5 per cent of the ballot went to Liberal campaigner Ian MacIntyre.

Part of the mediocre Liberal showing successful that byelection was the effect of the utmost unpopularity of Justin Trudeau's Liberals. Strategic voting apt played a relation arsenic well, particularly due to the fact that byelection voters thin to beryllium much engaged and motivated than voters successful wide elections.

In the 2025 rematch, the Liberal nationwide popularity was mode up. Despite Dance's overt pleas to Liberal voters to take her connected a strategical basis, MacIntyre much than quadrupled his ballot stock to 22 per cent of the fashionable ballot successful Elmwood-Transcona.

This unsocial spelled doom for Dance.

In presumption of earthy votes, some Reynolds and Dance won implicit thousands much voters successful the wide election, acknowledgment to a acold greater elector turnout. But truthful did MacIntyre, who efficaciously played spoiler to Dance's effort to propulsion disconnected an anyone-but-the-Conservative manoeuvre doubly successful 7 months.

3. Low-name-recognition Liberal helped prevention Leah Gazan 

If polling numbers unsocial dictated predetermination results successful each spot successful Canada, Winnipeg Centre MP Leah Gazan would person mislaid connected Monday.

In 2015, Liberal Robert-Falcon Ouellette defeated NDP incumbent Pat Martin successful Winnipeg Centre erstwhile nationwide Liberal enactment was 39 per cent and NDP enactment was 20 per cent.

In 2025, Liberal enactment crossed Canada dwarfed that of the NDP, 44 per cent to six per cent.

So however did Gazan past connected Monday? A beardown crushed crippled apt played a role, arsenic did the professor-turned-MP's beardown estimation among her halfway constituency of left-of-centre voters.

But sanction designation besides played a role. The Liberals nominated 23-year-old Liberal adjutant Rahul Walia arsenic their campaigner successful Winnipeg Centre successful December, erstwhile precise fewer radical successful authorities believed helium would be thing but a sacrificial lamb.

That changed 1 period later, erstwhile Liberal fortunes began to rise. Walia soon found himself with a genuine accidental to win.

In the end, the chartless Walia came wrong astir 4 percent points of knocking disconnected 1 of the best-known MPs successful Manitoba. A sanction campaigner whitethorn person pulled disconnected the upset.

4. Low elector turnout belied effect successful Churchill-Keewatinook Aski

There's a content successful authorities that low elector turnouts payment incumbents. The reasoning is, if radical are not highly motivated to vote, they won't amusement up successful droves to get escaped of an existing politician.

In Churchill-Keewatinook Aski, elector turnout successful this predetermination was lone 37.5 per cent connected Monday. Nonetheless, voters successful Manitoba's largest, slightest accessible and northernmost riding tossed retired 17-year NDP incumbent Niki Ashton successful favour of Liberal Rebecca Chartrand. 

While that effect made consciousness considering the divergent nationalist enactment for the 2 parties successful question, it remained funny owed to the seemingly debased appetite to ballot successful this riding.

5. NDP illness has implications for Kinew

Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew is connected holidays this week and did not share galore thoughts astir Canada's election. He was unavailable to remark Thursday.

He won't beryllium capable to debar the taxable for long. The resignation of Jagmeet Singh arsenic national NDP person has near a doorway unfastened for a person ambitious capable to instrumentality the reins of the national party.

As a fashionable provincial premier, Kinew is an charismatic enactment imaginable for the NDP. The reverse is not the case: it's unclear wherefore a sitting premier would beryllium funny successful reviving a national enactment with flagging popularity.

As well, it is improbable Kinew is considering going anyplace earlier his NDP government secures a 2nd term.

Even then, Kinew may person greater ambitions. He could beryllium funny 1 time successful different enactment oregon different signifier of nationalist service. After all, erstwhile his mentor Gary Doer resigned from his occupation arsenic Manitoba's premier successful 2009, helium went to service arsenic Canada's ambassador to the United States, not question different signifier of elected office.