3 straight months of rent decreases could spell some relief for N.B. tenants

Aidan Cox · CBC News

· Posted: Mar 05, 2025 5:00 AM EST | Last Updated: March 5

As much and much flat buildings emergence successful cities crossed New Brunswick, information from Statistics Canada shows the rents being charged for the units look to beryllium falling.

Consumer terms scale information from the national bureau shows the outgo of rent successful New Brunswick has declined each period betwixt past October and January, accounting for a 2.8 per cent alteration implicit that period.

Rents successful January were inactive 6.7 per cent higher than they were a twelvemonth earlier, however, the caller trend could indicate the overheated rental marketplace is yet starting to cool.

"It whitethorn beryllium astonishing to spot rents going down, and frankly for the archetypal clip in, you know, successful respective years," Richard Saillant, a New Brunswick economist, said. 

"But fundamentally it's astir proviso and demand."

Rent prices successful New Brunswick person seen a meteoric emergence successful caller years, climbing by astir 34 per cent since 2020.

Those prices roseate arsenic the proviso of caller lodging was dilatory to drawback up with a crisp increase in inter-provincial and planetary migration into the province.

WATCH | What's down a caller driblet successful N.B. rent prices:

The effect was borne retired by New Brunswick's vacancy rate — a cardinal indicator of supply — falling to a grounds debased of 1.5 per cent successful October 2023.

But now, with Ottawa tightening up connected migration and a question of caller houses and apartments being completed, those successful the rental marketplace look to be in for a spot of reprieve.

"Overall, the pricing powerfulness of landlords is overmuch lesser than it was before," Saillant said.

"We're starting to spot for-rent [signs] popping up in communities and... that suggests that immoderate units are either staying longer than earlier successful the marketplace or becoming vacant, truthful it's bully quality wide for renters."

Slowing colonisation growth

After decades of New Brunswick's colonisation remaining comparatively flat, the state saw a post-pandemic surge successful radical moving successful from different provinces and different countries.

The colonisation ballooned from 783,814 radical successful October 2020 to 857,381 past October.

However, that explosive maturation has started to slow, with caller figures showing the state is present losing much radical to different provinces than it's gaining.

More planetary migrants proceed to determination to New Brunswick, but the latest Statistics Canada estimates suggest that trend is slowing.

"Population numbers person had an effect connected rent prices. So if colonisation maturation is slowing, we'll spot this translated into rents," said Rebekah Howlett, an economist with Statistics Canada.

With the national government's planned cuts to migration targets this twelvemonth and into 2027, colonisation maturation could reverse, slowing request adjacent further, Saillant said.

"So for 2025, I wouldn't beryllium amazed to spot rents astatine slightest stagnating, if not proceed to decline," Saillant said.

Price cuts being made connected immoderate units, says landlords rep

The monthly diminution successful rent costs could beryllium partially owed to the precocious autumn and wintertime being an unpopular clip to move, Willy Scholten,president of the New Brunswick Apartment Owners Association, said.

At the aforesaid time, helium said helium has heard stories that backmost up the data.

He said immoderate landlords person recovered that units successful newer buildings aren't being rented arsenic accelerated arsenic anticipated, forcing them to budge connected the asking price.

"So rental rates ... are not going up, and successful immoderate cases they're going down," Scholten said.

Risk of slowing proviso growth

While the province's "housing crisis" isn't getting worse, it inactive isn't over, said Saillant.

Record colonisation maturation besides triggered grounds lodging construction, with 4,485 homes completed crossed the state past year, contributing to the province's vacancy complaint inching up to 2 per cent past fall.

But with signs of slowing demand, Saillant said developers might pull backmost connected the gait of construction.

Before that happens, the state should bash much to encourage the operation of much housing, helium said.

"There's an accidental close present to marque progress, peculiarly arsenic near to its ain devices, the backstage assemblage whitethorn not continue gathering to the aforesaid grade that it is presently doing so."

HST break will thrust much construction, says minister

New Brunswick Premier Susan Holt won past fall's provincial predetermination connected a level that included some housing-related initiatives, signature among them being a 3 per cent cap connected yearly rent increases.

Another of those was the removal of HST from the costs associated with gathering rental housing, a determination that different provinces adopted earlier with immoderate success.

Housing Minister David Hickey said helium doesn't person concerns astir the gait of construction slowing, adding helium thinks immoderate rent cost decreases are exclusively happening among higher-end units.

He said portion request mightiness so beryllium slowing, he's assured the HST interruption introduced past autumn volition beryllium the propulsion needed to support the gait of lodging construction.

"We request to bash a batch much to beryllium making definite ... that that vacancy [rate] creeps up," Hickey said, noting helium considers 3 per cent a healthy vacancy rate.

"And that means putting successful the close incentives to get much developers disconnected the sidelines and get much improvement going, truthful that we tin go the astir competitory improvement scenery successful Atlantic Canada."