1-in-4 Albertans would vote to separate in a referendum, Angus Reid poll suggests

Emily Williams · CBC News

· Posted: Apr 09, 2025 8:00 AM EDT | Last Updated: 18 minutes ago

A caller Angus Reid Institute canvass shows that if a referendum were held tomorrow, one-in-four Albertans would ballot to permission Canada.

For Albertans similar Dianne Peake, it's not a far-fetched idea.

She said the state is facing a high-stakes national election, aft astir a decennary of Liberal rule.

Peake spoke with CBC News extracurricular the Pierre Polievre rally successful Nisku connected Monday.

She said successful the upcoming predetermination a Conservative triumph is captious for nationalist unity.

"If the Liberals get successful — Alberta volition separate, guaranteed," Peake said.

She said if Mark Carney's Liberals signifier government, she would beryllium successful favour of separating.

It's a sentiment that has travel up a fewer times during this predetermination campaign. Reform Party laminitis Preston Manning said successful a Globe and Mail file past week that a ballot for Mark Carney's Liberals is simply a ballot for Western separation. 

Angus Reid said the separatist code was higher successful 2019, successful the aftermath of the Energy East pipeline cancellation and threats to the TransMountain expansion. 

WATCH | How these 3 Albertans are voting, and why: 

The caller Angus Reid canvass released this week besides showed that lone 24 per cent of Alberta residents consciousness their state is respected by the remainder of the country, which is little than fractional the level of the nationalist average, 52 per cent.  

Jared Wesley, a governmental idiosyncratic astatine the University of Alberta, said immoderate radical consciousness this mode partially retired of vexation of Conservatives losing predetermination aft election. But for some, it runs deeper.

"The hardcore separatists successful Alberta are truly portion of a planetary radical of folks who are rather frankly bushed of losing not conscionable elections, but losing credibility, losing their livelihoods and don't cognize rather who oregon what to blame, but they cognize thing large has to change," Wesley said.

In his ain survey research, Wesley recovered separatists thin to beryllium older, achromatic and unrecorded successful agrarian areas. They often have precocious schoolhouse acquisition oregon sometimes trades education. They are apt to be men who enactment successful industries that are much precarious similar lipid and gas, Wesley said.

"These are folks whose livelihoods are not lone being challenged due to the fact that of economics and occupation loss, but they're besides being challenged due to the fact that it's nary longer seen arsenic being an honourable assemblage — being seen arsenic portion of the occupation erstwhile it comes to lipid and gas."

Wesley said successful his ain research, survey respondents who accidental they'd ballot to separate, often besides don't judge it is simply a existent possibility.

"So it tells america that a ample information of the folks who … would enactment Alberta separatism are not truly superior astir it, but alternatively are expressing vexation and blowing disconnected steam," Wesley said, adding that if a existent referendum were to beryllium held, helium worries radical mightiness ballot successful favour without genuinely believing successful the idea.

Wesley besides recovered erstwhile asked follow-up questions astir the logistics of becoming autarkic — however taxes oregon a subject would enactment for illustration — enactment for independency goes down.

That resonates with John Butler.

"I deliberation it's not precise good thought retired due to the fact that if we permission Canada, wherever bash we go?" Butler said successful an interrogation connected Jasper Avenue successful Edmonton connected Monday. He added without immoderate ports to export Alberta's resources, independency wouldn't beryllium overmuch assistance to Alberta.

"And if the lone alternate is to spell to the United States, that's not overmuch of an alternate for me." 

"I similar it close here. I deliberation we tin enactment done our problems. We've got a past of Canada going backmost to 1867. Let's enactment it out."

Premier Danielle Smith was asked astir Manning's file connected Monday successful a quality conference. She said Canada hasn't worked for Alberta successful a decennary due to the fact that of national Liberal policies.

"I person to admit that there's a batch of unhappiness connected the portion of Albertans and the mode we've been treated," Smith said.

Last month, she released a database of demands for the adjacent premier curate to code successful the archetypal six months of bureau that she said are required to debar a nationalist unity crisis.

"I privation to beryllium capable to spot what happens aft the adjacent election," Smith said connected Monday. "And past I'll gauge wherever Albertans are retired astatine that point."