Trump says he might lower tariffs on China. Unless the number comes way down, experts say it won't matter

Abby Hughes · CBC News

· Posted: Apr 24, 2025 5:38 PM EDT | Last Updated: 11 minutes ago

The White House has indicated that it could little its tariffs connected China, but experts accidental the nonstop figures mightiness not marque overmuch of a difference.

Right now, the U.S. has 145 per cent broad tariffs connected Chinese goods, portion China has a 125 complaint connected U.S. goods. The levies jumped to those levels earlier this period erstwhile some countries were engaged successful a tit-for-tat raising of rates. 

U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters Tuesday during a quality league that tariffs would "come down substantially," but wouldn't vanish completely. According to a study by the Wall Street Journal, 1 White House authoritative said the Trump medication was considering cutting the rates from 145 per cent to determination betwixt 50 and 65 per cent.

Eric Miller, planetary commercialized advisor and president of Rideau Potomac Strategy Group, says those figures are not capable of a alteration to marque immoderate existent difference.

"While the levels of tariffs coming down are welcome, they're not going to beryllium important capable to get the immense bulk of commercialized backmost flowing again," Miller said.

Miller says the existent rates of 145 per cent are nary antithetic than a 1,000 per cent tariff — some efficaciously unopen disconnected commercialized betwixt the countries. 

WATCH | How acold volition China spell to bushed the U.S. successful commercialized war?:

Serious economical pain

Under the existent levels, Miller says U.S. importers of Chinese goods are present expected to wage astir $1.50 successful taxation for each dollar's worthy of products they're bringing into the country. "So by definition, they're starting that process astatine a loss. That means that truly cipher is going to beryllium bringing goods successful from China aft a while," Miller said. 

He says that that's already hurting American businesses, particularly those that marque things successful the U.S. and trust connected supplies oregon materials from China.

Any rates connected China above 20 per cent (which is simply a unsmooth mean of however precocious Trump raised them during his archetypal presidency) volition origin superior economical pain, according to Miller.

"Once you commencement getting up … supra 20 per cent, there's a declining fig of goods, really, that tin beryllium economical astatine those levels," Miller said.

Under 50 oregon 60 per cent broad tariffs, Miller says American companies would inactive beryllium successful a unreserved to determination accumulation retired of China to debar the measures. 

Certain industries — similar clothing, for illustration — would beryllium efficaciously priced retired of the marketplace astatine 50 per cent, Miller says.

According to a 2024 study by the U.S. International Trade Commission, the U.S. imported $79.3 cardinal US of apparel from China successful 2023, which accounted for 21 per cent of each covering imports. Miller says that because many accelerated manner retailers marque their apparel successful China and merchantability them astatine precise debased outgo successful the U.S., these hypothetical little rates could inactive rise covering prices dramatically, efficaciously ending fast manner for U.S. consumers arsenic they cognize it.

And assuming China matched the U.S.'s tariff rates, Miller adds that American companies that export to China (like farmers who usually merchantability billions of dollars successful soybeans to China a year) would besides find themselves priced out.

China not backing down

Anne Stevenson-Yang, co-founder of J Capital Research and writer of Wild Ride: A Short History of the Opening and Closing of the Chinese Economy, agrees with Miller that a simplification to 50 oregon 60 per cent would marque small difference. She says thing much than 50 per cent fundamentally functions similar a commercialized embargo.

But portion the U.S. says rates could fall, immoderate benignant of commercialized woody remains acold off. The Trump medication antecedently indicated it was successful talks with China astir a imaginable commercialized deal, though Chinese officials person travel retired since past to accidental determination person been nary discussions truthful far.

WATCH | China's Xi successful Vietnam seeking stronger ties amid Trump tariffs: 

Stevenson-Yang says China has been "masterful" truthful acold successful sending a nationalist connection that it volition not crook to Trump. She says extracurricular of a script wherever a fewer large Chinese companies came retired with plans to put successful the U.S., China volition not backmost down first.

When it comes to whether oregon not tariffs volition driblet backmost to what they were pre-trade war, Miller says the likelihood are "pretty low," fixed the Trump administration's extremity is to bring manufacturing backmost to the U.S.  

But Pau Pujolas, an subordinate prof of economics astatine McMaster University successful Hamilton, says the magic fig is apt zero, arsenic immoderate tariff complaint betwixt the 2 largest trading partners would person a large impact.

And adjacent if the tariffs were to spell distant completely, helium says harm would inactive beryllium done due to the fact that it generated uncertainty successful the economical strategy for businesses trying to marque caller investments, and for consumers deciding whether oregon not to marque large purchases.

"Ultimately, the nonstop fig of the tariff that we get is going to beryllium important, but it's not going to [cause] the bulk of the damage," Pujolas said.