NATO's history of running hot and cold on Ukraine is running cold again

There was a peculiarly telling infinitesimal astatine a bygone NATO acme astir 4 years ago, which perfectly captured the sometimes capricious mode the Western subject confederation regards Ukraine. 

The caput wide of the day, the often unflappable Jens Stoltenberg, was asked astir the Eastern European country's long-standing bid to articulation the allies. 

At that point, Ukraine had been waiting much than a twelve years for admission. 

And overmuch similar the archetypal signs of an approaching storm, determination had been an ominous buildup of Russian forces connected the borderline the erstwhile spring.

Stoltenberg was asked if helium foresaw immoderate script nether which Ukraine would articulation NATO unchallenged by Russia. (Full disclosure: I americium the 1 who asked the question). 

It was — possibly — sadly prescient. 

Stoltenberg, however, waved it off. 

Each federation has the close to prime and take its alliances and associations, helium responded.

The constituent — past and present — is that Ukraine had chosen. It had picked a broadside and charted its ain course. It had thrown its batch successful with allies successful 2008 successful the belief, possibly misguided, that the Western committedness of fairness and corporate information was their future.

And yet, past — arsenic present — Ukraine was near waiting extracurricular the door.

Ukraine connected the sidelines

At this week's NATO summit, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy — whose each connection leaders hung connected during the 2022 and 2023 gatherings — was relegated to the sidelines and the eating hallway arsenic Western leaders discussed his country's destiny down closed doors.

In fairness, Zelenskky did get look clip with large leaders, including the American president, Donald Trump. 

Through that meeting, helium secured additional, urgently needed U.S. Patriot rocket artillery systems.

There was a corporate warrant of further assistance worthy 35 cardinal euros from European allied countries. Canada — astatine the G7 the week earlier — promised an further $4.3 billion.

The acme ended with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who is seldom offside with the Trump medication these days, stating that Ukraine's way to articulation NATO, arsenic declared astatine the 2023 Vilnius summit, is inactive "irreversible." 

Maybe helium didn't get Washington's memo.

It was wide the acme was tailored for Trump — a short, narrowly focused docket aimed astatine getting allies to amusement him the wealth connected defence spending. Ukraine was a necessary, but unpleasant, afterthought. 

Canada, the archetypal sponsor of Ukraine's rank successful 2008, went on — seemingly reluctantly.

"We would person preferred, Canada would person preferred a peculiar league with NATO, with Ukraine, absolutely," Prime Minister Mark Carney told journalists astatine the decision of the acme connected Wednesday,

While Carney said helium raised respective points related to Ukraine during the closed-door leaders' meeting, helium clarified astir of the corporate docket discussed had thing to bash with Ukraine and everything to bash with the concerns of different allies. He utilized the Arctic arsenic an illustration of thing Zelenskyy mightiness not attraction about.

The premier minister's remarks shed airy connected what is fundamentally the cardinal disagreement betwixt Europe and the United States (at slightest this iteration nether the Trump administration) implicit Ukraine.

"The U.S. does not spot Ukrainian information arsenic indispensable to European security, and our European allies do," erstwhile U.S. ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker told a caller sheet organized by the Center for European Policy Analysis.

The Europeans, helium said, "feel that if Putin is allowed to prevail successful Ukraine — oregon if Ukraine does not past arsenic a sovereign, autarkic authorities — they are astatine risk." 

WATCH | Ukrainian describes aftermath of bombing: 

That was implicit successful Rutte's enthusiastic reassurance astir Ukraine's rank bid, adjacent though it risked the ire of Trump.

"They spot the request to enactment Ukraine arsenic integral to our information done NATO. The U.S. simply doesn't spot it that way," said Volker.

The U.S. "thinks NATO is NATO. You bash Article Five extortion for NATO members, and the much that is done by our European allies themselves the better," helium said. "And Ukraine, it's unfortunate. It's a war."

Russia's reddish line

Russian President Vladimir Putin has made Ukraine's imaginable rank successful NATO a cardinal reddish enactment for allies, insisting that his neighbour beryllium barred from entering the Western confederation — forever. 

Trump successful his pursuit of immoderate benignant of Nobel Peace Prize bought into the statement and made disapproval of Moscow verboten — either astatine NATO oregon the G7. 

As precocious arsenic a period ago, Trump's envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, said Russia's interest implicit the eastward enlargement of NATO was fair.

Bullocks, says NATO's erstwhile caput wide Lord George Robertson.

"I had 9 meetings with Vladimir Putin during my clip arsenic caput general," said Robertson, who led NATO from 1999 to 2003, arsenic Putin came to powerfulness and the confederation began its enlargement to see erstwhile Eastern Bloc countries. 

"At nary constituent did helium kick astir NATO enlargement. Not astatine all."

Robertson, successful a caller interrogation with CBC News, describes Putin's NATO statement arsenic "retroactive justification" for going to warfare against his neighbours (Russia besides invaded Georgia successful 2008).

Forgotten successful the lavation of history, the flood of misinformation, the caller clash of egos, the unreserved to rearm and the massaging of argumentation points is an statement signed by Putin and allied leaders — including U.S. President George W. Bush and Prime Minister Jean Chrétien — which established the now-defunct NATO-Russia Council successful 2002.  

"Vladimir Putin enactment his signature connected the Rome Declaration, which endorsed the NATO-Russia Founding Act (1997) and the warrant of territorial integrity of each nations successful Europe," said Robertson. "His signature is connected it with mine."

The day and the lawsuit is burned into his memory.

"May 20, 2002, the aforesaid time that helium stood beside maine astatine the property league and said that Ukraine is simply a sovereign, autarkic nation, a authorities which volition marque its ain decisions astir bid and security," Robertson said.

"And present the aforesaid antheral says Ukraine is not a federation and somehow, violently, it has to beryllium absorbed wrong his conception of a caller Russia."

The erstwhile caput general, during his interview, confessed to often carrying astir a transcript of the much than two-decade-old declaration successful his suit pocket.

The document, for Robertson, is an ever-present reminder of Putin's betrayal — possibly adjacent a idiosyncratic keepsake of a crown accomplishment that past has turned to dust.

When Ukrainians look astatine the aforesaid portion of paper, however, they not lone spot betrayal, but besides different capricious infinitesimal successful time.