How much is trade between Saskatchewan and the U.S. worth?

Dayne Patterson · CBC News

· Posted: Mar 05, 2025 5:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 8 hours ago

Saskatchewan sends overmuch much merchandise crossed the confederate border than crosses into the province, according to Statistics Canada data. So what does a commercialized warfare mean for the province?

On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump implemented 10 per cent tariffs connected Canadian lipid and different vigor exports headed to the U.S., and 25 per cent tariffs connected each different products.

The United States is Saskatchewan's largest trading partner. Of the province's astir $45 cardinal successful planetary exports, much than fractional (about $26.7 billion) head to the U.S. In comparison, about $13 cardinal successful merchandise from the United States comes into Saskatchewan — though it's unclear from information however overmuch of that stays successful the province.

Last year, Saskatchewan's starring exports to the U.S. were crude oil, potash and canola products, according to Statistics Canada (figures are successful Canadian dollars):

• $12.47 cardinal successful crude lipid (100 per cent of the province's crude lipid exports).
• $4.20 cardinal in potash (more than fractional of its potash exports).
• $1.98 cardinal successful canola lipid (nearly each of its canola lipid exports).
• $1.10 cardinal successful processed uranium (nearly each of its processed uranium exports).

Those 4 materials made up astir 74 per cent of Saskatchewan's exports to the U.S. successful 2024.

U.S. reliance connected potash

Corey Rosenbusch, president and CEO of the Virginia-based Fertilizer Institute, said helium was hoping to spot fertilizer exempt from the tariffs.

He said the United States and its farmers trust heavy connected Canadian potash. Canada provides 85 to 90 per cent of potash imported into America.

The U.S. besides produces its ain potash, "but by nary means capable to conscionable the full need," Rosenbusch said. It besides imports some from Russia.

If the U.S. wanted to look elsewhere, Rosenbusch said, "the remainder of the satellite would not beryllium capable to displacement the proviso concatenation to conscionable the U.S. demand."

WATCH | Moe announces Sask. effect to tariffs:

Statistics Canada information shows the U.S. imported much than 12 cardinal kilograms of potash from Canada past year, each of which was from Saskatchewan.

A spokesperson for Canada's largest shaper of potash, Nutrien, said successful an emailed connection that U.S. farmers volition carnivore the costs of the tariffs.

"In anticipation of tariffs, we've moved arsenic overmuch potash southbound of the borderline arsenic imaginable up of the outpouring planting season," spokesperson Shawn Churchill said successful the email.

Rosenbusch said the tariffs connected potash volition pb to higher prices connected food, including burgers, pizza and adjacent poultry that trust connected grain.

He said helium spoke with farmers astatine the 2025 Commodity Classic, an cultivation normal that's happened implicit the past respective days. Some growers were acrophobic astir the tariff news, others were either not alert oregon supported Trump base and spot his call.

He said the caller month-long hold connected tariffs was beneficial for growers who could fastener successful contracts with retailers successful the U.S. and capable their sheds with the needed fertilizer (including potash oregon different nutrients, similar nitrogen and sulphur). 

WATCH | How industries successful Saskatoon could beryllium affected by tariffs: 

The different broadside of the coin

About 41 per cent of Saskatchewan's full planetary commercialized past twelvemonth was with non-U.S. countries.

"I deliberation we person immoderate vulnerability connected immoderate of the earthy resources side, but it's somewhat mitigated due to the fact that we are exploring different markets," said Keith Willoughby, Dean of the Edwards School of Business astatine the University of Saskatchewan.

In Ontario, Premier Doug Ford has threatened to chopped disconnected vigor proviso to the U.S. due to the fact that of the commercialized war.

Willoughby said if Saskatchewan were to propulsion backmost against the U.S. tariffs successful a akin way, the champion strategy would beryllium to usage America's dependence connected potash and dense crude oil.

LISTEN | A Saskatchewan concern adept talks astir the anticipated interaction of a Canada-U.S. commercialized war:

In comparison, the astir invaluable commodities to transverse into Saskatchewan from the U.S. are dense vehicles and machinery, according to information from Statistics Canada, though it's unclear whether those products remained successful Saskatchewan aft crossing.

As of Wednesday, nary of those imports are connected Canada's list of retaliatory tariffs, though immoderate operation materials are.

"Just similar a batch of the different industries successful our country, we've precise acrophobic astir it," Shannon Friesen, president and CEO of the Construction Association of Saskatchewan, said astir tariffs.

Construction is astir six to 7 per cent of Saskatchewan's gross home merchandise (GDP).

"We're a beauteous large manufacture and a beauteous large driving unit of the economy," she said.

Friesen is acrophobic astir proviso concatenation issues and rising costs from the tariffs, but said the operation manufacture is resilient.