Heads up! Soviet-era probe to re-enter atmosphere this week, could make it to the surface

Nicole Mortillaro · CBC News

· Posted: May 06, 2025 4:00 AM EDT | Last Updated: 7 minutes ago

Fifty years ago, the former Soviet Union launched a probe to Venus. Except it ne'er made it. Instead, the rocket engines unopen disconnected excessively early, and the probe was stuck successful Earth orbit. Now, it's making its mode backmost to Earth.

Venera 8, launched connected March 27, 1972, was 1 of a brace of probes designed to survey the aboveground of Venus. Four days later, it launched the 2nd probe, which, aft it was stuck successful Earth orbit, was catalogued arsenic Kosmos 482.

The probe is estimated to beryllium astir fractional a tonne and is expected to re-enter Earth's ambiance astir May 10, springiness oregon instrumentality a time and a half, according to a caller update from Marco Langbroek, who has been tracking the entity for rather galore years.

What's astir absorbing is that this lander (or re-entry capsule) was built to past Venus's punishingly dense atmosphere. So, dissimilar rockets that we spot re-enter Earth's ambiance and interruption up (think Starship's caller mishaps), it's improbable that this volition hap with Kosmos 482.

But it's not a crushed to panic, said Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist with the Harvard–Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics's Chandra X-ray Center.

"So you've got fundamentally thing the size of a tiny car plowing into the Earth astatine [240 kilometres] an hour," he said. "Let's not overstate it, right? It's not, like, evacuate the metropolis benignant of thing. But it's similar a tiny level clang oregon thing similar that: You don't privation to beryllium lasting close underneath."

McDowell is good known for his extended satellite- and debris-tracking database. In fact, it was helium who archetypal postulated backmost successful 2000 arsenic to what Kosmos 482 could be.

"Back successful 2000, I was going done each entity successful the NORAD abstraction entity catalogue, trying to fig retired what each entity was, each 25,000 of them arsenic determination were astatine the time. And I came crossed this 1 and went, 'OK, this is thing unusual.'" 

It wasn't wide known what the entity was astatine the clip because the U.S. and the Soviet Union were successful the midst of the Cold War, and galore things were kept secret.

Where it is expected to crash

As for wherever it mightiness crash, Langbroek recently told Spaceweather.com, "With an orbital inclination of 52 degrees, the Kosmos 482 descent trade could travel down anyplace betwixt 52 degrees northbound and 52 degrees southbound latitude," said Langbroek.

That covers overmuch of the satellite astatine southbound and mid-latitude.

WATCH | Kosmos 482 Descent Craft, 27 Oct 2020

However, McDowell said that it's much apt to travel down successful the ocean, since Earth is mostly covered by water. 

"The likelihood are … it'll beryllium successful the water oregon successful an bare area. But there's ... immoderate decent accidental that it'll travel down successful an country wherever determination are people, though, adjacent successful populated areas, astir populated areas are not similar radical packed broadside by side. And truthful the chances are that it won't wounded anyone."

This is a somewhat familiar story.

In 1979, NASA's bare Skylab abstraction presumption re-entered Earth's atmosphere after a fewer failed attempts to support it successful orbit. Much of it did pain up successful the atmosphere, nevertheless debris fell implicit the Indian Ocean and successful parts of Australia.

The large differences betwixt the 2 are that Skylab wasn't built to withstand Venus' dense atmosphere, and it was 70 tonnes, not fractional a tonne. 

Now, the content is that Kosmos 482 is the descent craft, but it's not known for certain.

The motorboat consisted of respective elements, including the rocket signifier and the work module (which provides powerfulness among different things). The work module was believed to person re-entered Earth's ambiance successful 1981.

McDowell said that there's a anticipation that what was labelled arsenic the work module, which re-entered the ambiance successful 1981, was really the lander and that Kosmos 482 could alternatively beryllium the work module. In that case, it would astir apt pain up successful the atmosphere.

However, helium said based connected the size and density of the existent entity labelled arsenic Kosmos 482, it's much apt to beryllium the Venus lander.

Astrophotographer Ralf Vandebergh imaged Kosmos 482, which showed immoderate benignant of protuberance. He speculated that it could beryllium the parachute, but that volition apt ne'er beryllium confirmed arsenic it volition pain up successful the ambiance upon re-entry.

As this is an uncontrolled re-entry, it's hard to find precisely wherever oregon erstwhile this volition re-enter Earth's atmosphere.

"Because we don't cognize erstwhile it's going to re-enter to wrong a fewer hours astatine best, adjacent the time before, we won't beryllium capable to say, 'Here's wherever it's going to travel down,'" McDowell said.  "We'll person to find retired aft the fact."