Asteroid's chance of hitting Earth in 2032 not high after all

Thomson Reuters

· Posted: Feb 28, 2025 11:31 AM EST | Last Updated: February 28

New observations of a tiny asteroid discovered successful December person led astronomers to reason that the chances of it striking Earth are astir zero, aft earlier information had indicated a higher hazard of a collision with this abstraction stone astir 40 to 90 metres wide.

The asteroid — called 2024 YR4 — is orbiting connected a way that volition bring it adjacent to Earth successful 2032, with scientists previously calculating interaction probability astatine astir 3 per cent, the highest worth ever recorded for specified an object.

The caller data, obtained by the European Southern Observatory's Chile-based Very Large Telescope and different facilities, gave a much precise representation of the asteroid's aboriginal trajectory. The interaction probability has been lowered to 0.001 per cent, according to the European Space Agency's Near-Earth Objects Coordination Centre, portion NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory enactment it astatine 0.004 per cent.

"The hazard is plummeting," said Olivier Hainaut, an astronomer with the European Southern Observatory successful Germany.

WATCH | Why bash the chances of an asteroid striking Earth support shifting? 

Chance of striking satellite inactive 1.7%

NASA enactment the probability of the asteroid striking the satellite astatine 1.7 per cent.

The asteroid has been intimately monitored since its find due to the fact that of the imaginable menace it poses. An interaction perchance could origin determination devastation and important nonaccomplishment of life.

"An entity 10 metres across would make an interaction with the aforesaid vigor arsenic the Hiroshima bomb," said Hainaut, who estimated that an interaction by YR4 would beryllium 500 times much energetic than that.

"Fortunately, it is precise apt that astir of that vigor would beryllium dumped successful the precocious ambiance erstwhile the asteroid comes in. Still, it is simply a beauteous large blast that could harm a city-wide area," Hainaut added.

Asteroids person struck Earth occasionally implicit its agelong history, often with cataclysmic results. For example, an asteroid estimated astatine 10 to 15 kilometres wide — much larger than 2024 YR4 — hit disconnected the seashore of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula 66 cardinal years ago, eradicating astir three-quarters of the world's taxon and ending the property of dinosaurs.

NASA successful 2022 carried retired a proof-of-principle planetary defence ngo by using its robotic DART spacecraft to alteration the trajectory of the asteroid Dimorphos, with an oculus toward doing this successful the aboriginal if 1 appears connected a collision people with Earth.

WATCH | NASA slams spacecraft into asteroid to trial planetary defence: 

Astronomers are learning much and much astir asteroids. For instance, NASA's robotic OSIRIS-REx spacecraft journeyed to an asteroid named Bennu and, successful 2020, collected samples of stone and particulate that bore immoderate of the chemic gathering blocks of life, according to a survey published successful January.

Another survey estimated the imaginable harm that would beryllium caused if an asteroid the size of Bennu — with a diameter of astir 500 metres — strikes Earth. Scientists person estimated a one-in-2,700 accidental of a Bennu collision with Earth successful 2182.

Aside from the contiguous devastation, researchers estimated an interaction by a Bennu-sized asteroid would inject 100 cardinal to 400 cardinal tonnes of particulate into the atmosphere, causing disruptions successful climate, atmospheric chemistry and planetary photosynthesis lasting 3 to 4 years.

WATCH | Asteroid Bennu samples incorporate 'building blocks' of beingness connected Earth: